Tus Ntses Dub yog dab tsi? Peb piav qhia cov Dub Swan kev tshwm sim

Lub sijhawm nyeem ntawv: <1 feeb

Dub Swan kev tshwm sim, nyob rau hauv nws qhov yooj yim tshaj plaws, yog ib qho kev tshwm sim uas ua rau muaj kev xav tsis thoob thiab muaj cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb, tseem ceeb.

Lub keeb kwm ntawm Dub Swan Theory - los yog The Black Swan Theory ntawm Cov Txheej Txheem - cov hnub rov qab mus rau tiam XNUMX tiam Latin qhia los ntawm Roman tus kws sau paj lug Juvenal, thaum nws yuav muaj qee yam xws li:

Rara avis hauv terris nigroque simillima cygno

Peb tuaj yeem txhais cov kab lus Latin no rau hauv: "ib tug noog tsis tshua muaj ntsis zoo li ib tus noog dawb". Thaum chiv thawj, thaum cov lus no xub raug, cov npua dub tau xav tias tsis muaj.

Dub Swan lub tswv yim tau txuas ntxiv tsim los ntawm tus qauv suav thiab tub luam Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Xyoo 2007 nws luam tawm ib phau ntawv hu ua Dub Swan: Qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov tshwm sim siab heev, uas tau piav qhia thiab lees paub txoj kev xav ntawm Black Swan.Qhov qhov txuas no kom tau nws ntawm Amazon: LINK. Nco ntsoov, nws yog tsis muaj Kev Xa Mus!

Raws li Taleb, Cov Dub Swan cov xwm txheej feem ntau ua raws peb qho:

Ib tug Ntses Dub nws yog anomalyCov. Nws yog dhau qhov kev cia siab tas li thiab, yog li ntawd, tsis muaj dab tsi yav dhau los tuaj yeem kwv yees nws.
Nws muaj ib txwm ib tug heev cuam tshuam lossis tseem ceeb.
Cov Dub Swan kev tshwm sim, txawm tias tsis paub meej, yuav muaj lub laj thawj tsim kho tom qab nws tshwm sim thawj zaug, uas ua rau qhov kev tshwm sim zoo li no thiab paub tau tseeb.

Piv txwv ntawm cov xwm txheej Swan yav dhau los, raws li tau piav los ntawm Taleb, yog qhov nce ntawm internet, tus kheej lub khoos phis tawm, kev rhuav tshem ntawm Soviet Union, thiab kev tawm tsam lub Cuaj Hlis 11, 2001.

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