O le a le Swan Uliuli? Matou te faʻamatalaina le mea na tupu i le Black Swan

Taimi faitau: <1 minute

O le Black Swan gaioiga, i lona faigofie foliga, o se gaioiga e oʻo mai o se mea e ofo ai ma ei ai sona taua, taua aʻafiaga.

O le talaʻaga o le Black Swan Theory - poʻo le Black Swan Theory o Mea na Tutupu - na amata mai i le lona XNUMX seneturi faʻaaliga Latina e le tusisolo Roma Juvenal, pe a faʻaalia ai se mea pei:

Rara avis i terris nigroque simillima cygno

E mafai ona matou faʻauigaina lenei faʻaupuga Latina i le: "o se manu e seasea tupu e tali tutusa lava ma le puaʻi uli". Muamua lava, ina ua faʻatoʻa faʻaaogaina lenei fuaitau, manulele uli na manatu e leai.

O le Black Swan teori na atiaʻe atili e le faʻamaumauga ma le faioloa o Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I le 2007 na ia lolomiina se tusi ua taua Le Black Swan: Le Aʻafiaga o le Maualuga Faʻaleleia, lea na faʻamatalaina ma faʻatulafonoina le talitonuga o le Black Swan. Lenei o le soʻotaga e maua ai luga o le Amazon: LINK. Manatua, e leai ni Faʻasino!

Ae faimai foi Taleb, Black Swan mea na tutupu masani mulimuli i tolu uiga:

Se Swan Uliuli o se mea faʻasolitulafono. E sili atu nai lo masani faʻamoemoeina ma, mulimuli ane, leai se mea i le tuanaʻi mafai ona valoʻia ai.
E masani ona ia faia o se aafiaga ogaoga pe taua.
O se mea e tupu i le Black Swan, e ui lava e le mafaamatalaina, ae e mautinoa lava e i ai se mafuaʻaga ua maeʻa ona aliaʻe mai, ma avea ai lena ituaiga o gaioiga ma mea e mafai ona faʻamatalaina ma vaʻaia.

O faʻataʻitaʻiga o mea na tutupu i le Black Swan talu ai, e pei ona faʻamatalaina e Taleb, o le tulaʻi mai o le initaneti, o le komupiuta a le tagata lava ia, o le faʻateʻaina o le Soviet Union, ma osofaʻiga ia Setema 11, 2001.

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