Okwamanje ubukele Yini Idada Elimnyama? Sichaza ngomcimbi Wedada Elimnyama.
I-Black Swan, i-Black Swan, Funda i-Cryptocurrensets

Yini iSwan Swan? Sichaza umcimbi we-Black Swan.

Isikhathi sokufunda: <1 umzuzu

Umcimbi weBlack Swan, ngesimo sawo esilula, umcimbi oza njengokumangazayo futhi onomphumela obalulekile, obalulekile.

Umlando weTheory Swan Theory - noma iThe Black Swan Theory of Events - isukela enkulumweni yesiLatini yekhulu lesi-XNUMX yimbongi yaseRoma uJuvenal, lapho izofaka into efana nale:

I-Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno

Singahumusha lesi sisho sesiLatini siye ku: "inyoni engajwayelekile ifana kakhulu nenkukhu emnyama". Ekuqaleni, ngenkathi le nkulumo isetshenziswa okokuqala, ama-swans amnyama kwakucatshangwa ukuthi awekho.

Umbono weBlack Swan waphinde wasungulwa yisazi sezibalo kanye nomhwebi uNassim Nicholas Taleb. Ngo-2007 washicilela incwadi ebizwa ngokuthi IBlack Swan: Umthelela Wokungenzeki Kakhulu, eyayichaza futhi yenza ngokomthetho umbono weBlack Swan.Nasi isixhumanisi sokuyithola ku-Amazon: LINK. Qaphela, ngaphandle kokudluliselwa!

Ngokusho kukaTaleb, imicimbi yeBlack Swan ngokuvamile ilandela izimfanelo ezintathu:

  • I-Swan Emnyama kuyinto engathandeki. Kungaphezu kokulindelwe njalo, futhi ngenxa yalokho, akukho okwedlule obekungakubikezela.
  • Uhlale njalo umthelela owedlulele noma okuphawulekayo.
  • Umcimbi weBlack Swan, yize ungalindelekile, ngokuqinisekile uzoba nesizathu esasungulwa ngemuva kokuvela kwawo okokuqala, okwenza lolo hlobo lomcimbi lucace futhi lubikezelwe.

Izibonelo zezehlakalo ezedlule zeBlack Swan, njengoba kuchazwe nguTaleb, ukwenyuka kwe-intanethi, ikhompyutha yomuntu siqu, ukuqedwa kweSoviet Union, kanye nokuhlaselwa kukaSepthemba 11, 2001.