Yini iSwan Swan? Sichaza umcimbi we-Black Swan.

Isikhathi sokufunda: <1 umzuzu

Umcimbi weBlack Swan, ngesimo sawo esilula, umcimbi oza njengokumangazayo futhi onomphumela obalulekile, obalulekile.

Umlando weTheory Swan Theory - noma iThe Black Swan Theory of Events - isukela enkulumweni yesiLatini yekhulu lesi-XNUMX yimbongi yaseRoma uJuvenal, lapho izofaka into efana nale:

I-Rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno

Singahumusha lesi sisho sesiLatini siye ku: "inyoni engajwayelekile ifana kakhulu nenkukhu emnyama". Ekuqaleni, ngenkathi le nkulumo isetshenziswa okokuqala, ama-swans amnyama kwakucatshangwa ukuthi awekho.

Umbono weBlack Swan waphinde wasungulwa yisazi sezibalo kanye nomhwebi uNassim Nicholas Taleb. Ngo-2007 washicilela incwadi ebizwa ngokuthi IBlack Swan: Umthelela Wokungenzeki Kakhulu, eyayichaza futhi yenza ngokomthetho umbono weBlack Swan.Nasi isixhumanisi sokuyithola ku-Amazon: LINK. Qaphela, ngaphandle kokudluliselwa!

Ngokusho kukaTaleb, imicimbi yeBlack Swan ngokuvamile ilandela izimfanelo ezintathu:

I-Swan Emnyama kuyinto engathandeki. Kungaphezu kokulindelwe njalo, futhi ngenxa yalokho, akukho okwedlule obekungakubikezela.
Uhlale njalo umthelela owedlulele noma okuphawulekayo.
Umcimbi weBlack Swan, yize ungalindelekile, ngokuqinisekile uzoba nesizathu esasungulwa ngemuva kokuvela kwawo okokuqala, okwenza lolo hlobo lomcimbi lucace futhi lubikezelwe.

Izibonelo zezehlakalo ezedlule zeBlack Swan, njengoba kuchazwe nguTaleb, ukwenyuka kwe-intanethi, ikhompyutha yomuntu siqu, ukuqedwa kweSoviet Union, kanye nokuhlaselwa kukaSepthemba 11, 2001.

I-Echo Dot (4th Generation) - Isipikha esihlakaniphile esine-Alexa - I-Ice White

(69157)

Ngibamba intengo.

(kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Hp 305 Emnyama, 3Ym61Ae, Ikhatriji Ye-Hp Yangempela Kusukela Emakhasini angu-120, Mnyama, Usayizi Ojwayelekile

(57753)

10,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Apple Airpods Pro (isizukulwane sokuqala) enekesi lokushaja le-MagSafe (2021)

(20896)

217,00 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Fire TV Stick Lite ene-Alexa Voice Remote | I-Lite (ngaphandle kwezilawuli ze-TV), Ukusakaza nge-HD

(2207)

19,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-HP 304, Emnyama kanye ne-Tri-color, 3JB05AE, 2-pack Original HP cartridges, ehambisana ne-HP DeskJet 2620, 2630, 3720, 3730, 3750 kanye ne-3760, HP ENVY 5010, 5020 namaphrinta

(62237)

26,90 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Blink Video Doorbell + Sync Module 2 + Echo Dot (isizukulwane sesi-3) | Umsindo wezindlela ezimbili, ividiyo ye-HD, izaziso zohlelo lokusebenza, ukusetha okulula, nokuhlanganiswa kwe-Alexa (emhlophe)

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39,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-TP-Link Indoor Wi-Fi Camera, 1080P Surveillance Camera, Night Vision, Two Way Audio, Motion Sensor Real Time Notifications (Tapo C200)

(72552)

25,00 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

Izindaba ze-Apple AirTag

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34,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-YAMTION Men Backpack, High School Middle University Backpack, 15.6 Inch Male Laptop Backpack enembobo ye-USB

(3772)

33,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Xiaomi Smart Band 7, 1.62 '' Isikrini se-AMOLED, Ukuqapha Ukulala, i-SpO2, Izinga lenhliziyo, i-VO2max, 5 Ukumelana Namanzi kwe-ATM, Amamodi Ezemidlalo angu-110+, Impilo Yebhethri Yezinsuku Eziyi-14, Inguqulo YesiNtaliyane

(2010)

51,98 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Ticwatch Smartwatch Pro 3 LTE, i-Wear OS by Google, inkundla ye-Qualcomm Snapdragon Wear 4100, ukuqapha ukushaya kwenhliziyo nokulala kanye ne-NFC

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215,71 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

Philips Pen Drive 64gb USB 2.0 FM64FD70B pendrive flash drive flash drive high speed 64gb with cap and keychain

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6,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

Ama-Apple AirPods anekesi lokushaja ikhebula (isizukulwane sesibili)

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170,00 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Apple AirPods (isizukulwane sesithathu) enekesi lokushaja le-MagSafe (2021)

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210,00 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-SanDisk 128GB MicroSDXC Memory Card Kanye ne-SD Adapter, Red Gray

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18,90 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

ICanon PG-545 / CL-546 Ink Cartridges, Multipack Blister Security, Mnyama Nombala

(76705)

29,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Sony WH-CH510 - Ama-headphone angenazintambo ezindlebeni - I-Bluetooth - isebenzisana nomsizi we-Google kanye ne-Siri - Ibhethri kufika emahoreni angu-35 - Ukushaja okusheshayo (10 amaminithi. Amaminithi angu-90. Wokudlala) - Mnyama

(7910)

25,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

Inkomba

I-Jsdoin VHS to Digital Converter, Hi8 VHS to DVD Video Capture Card, Audio Video Digitizer Converter Adapter, VHS to USB Converter Windows 10/8/7 kanye ne-MacOS TV Adapter

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8,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Apple AirPods Pro (isizukulwane sesibili)

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Amazon Basics AA Alkaline Industrial Batteries, Pack of 40

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I-HP 304 Black, N9K06AE, 120-page Original HP Cartridge, Ihambisana ne-HP DeskJet 2620, 2630, 3720, 3730, 3750 kanye ne-3760, HP ENVY 5010, 5020 kanye ne-5030 Printer

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11,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Anigaduo 20W USB C Ishaja Esheshayo Ye-iPhone 14/14 Plus / 14 Pro / 14 Pro Max / 13/12/11 / XS / XS Max / XR / X, iPad, AirPods, USBC PD 3.0 Ishaja Ipulagi Yepulagi Yamandla Esokhethi I-adaptha Yodonga Iyashaja

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I-Aioneus Ikhebula i-iPhone 1.8M Ukushaja i-iPhone Ishaja i-MFi Eqinisekisiwe Ikhebula Lokukhanya Okude, Ishaja esheshayo ye-iPhone 14 13 12 PRO Max Mini 11 SE 2020 X XS XR 8 Plus 7 6s 6 5 5s 5c iPad

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I-NEW'C 2 Pieces, Tempered Glass Ihambisana ne-iPhone 11 ne-iPhone XR (6.1), Anti-Scratch, Anti-Fingerprint Protective Film, 9H Hardness, 0,33mm Ultra Transparent, Ultra Resistant

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I-Apple MagSafe Power Adapter

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I-HP 301 CH561EE Original Cartridge, Amakhasi angu-190, ye-HP DeskJet 1000 Series, 1050 1510, 2000, 2050, 2510, 2540 kanye ne-3050 Series, i-HP Envy 4500 kanye ne-5530 ye-Black Office kanye ne-2620 Series 4630 ne-Black HP

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I-HP DeskJet 2720e, Iphrinta Yezinto Eziningi, Izinyanga Eziyisi-6 Uyinki Osheshayo Uhlanganiswe ne-HP +

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I-Apple USB-C Power Adapter 20W White

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I-Fire TV Stick 4K Max, i-Wi-Fi 6, ene-Alexa Voice Remote (enezilawuli ze-TV)

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I-Echo Show 5 (isizukulwane sesibili, imodeli 2) | Isikrini esihlakaniphile esinekhamera ye-Alexa ne-2021MP | I-anthracite

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TOSHIBA HDTB420EK3AA, Canvio Basics, Portable External Hard Drive, USB 3.0, Black, 2 TB

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I-Fujifilm 16386016 Instax Mini Film Instant Film ye-Instax Mini Cameras, Ifomethi engu-46x62 mm, Iphakethe Lezithombe ezingu-20

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14,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Power Bank, i-INIU Ultra Thin & Lightweight Powerbank 10000mAh Dual Output 3A High Speed, Ishaja Ephathekayo ye-USB C Portable ye-iPhone 14 Samsung Huawei Xiaomi. [2022 Version]

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17,84 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Samsung Galaxy A33 5G Android Smartphone, Infinity-U FHD + Super AMOLED 6.4 ”Display ¹, 6GB RAM kanye no-128GB wenkumbulo yangaphakathi enwebekayo², Ibhethri 5.000 mAh, Awesome Black [Inguqulo yesi-Italian]

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I-Kingston Canvas Select Plus SDCS2 / 64GB Ikhadi le-microSD Lekilasi le-10 eline-adaptha ye-SD Ihlanganisiwe, engu-64GB

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2021 Apple iPad (10,2 ", Wi-Fi, 64GB) - Space Gray (isizukulwane sesi-9)

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I-JBL Wave 200TWS True Wireless In-Ear Headphones, Ama-earphone e-Bluetooth Angenantambo Anombhobho Ohlanganisiwe, Ukuvikelwa kwe-IPX2, Kuze Kufike ku-20h Wempilo Yebhethri Ehlanganisiwe, Ikesi Lokushaja, Elimnyama

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48,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-Night Vision Binoculars, i-tkwser I-Infrared Digital Night Vision ene-TFT LCD 2,31 "Ibanga elifika ku-300m, Ama-Binoculars Ebusuku Bezempi anesithombe se-HD kanye Nokuqoshwa Kwevidiyo Yokuzingela

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I-Power Bank 10400mAh, Ishaja Ephathekayo ye-USB C ene-Digital LED Display Portable Battery yangaphandle enokokufaka okungu-2 kanye nokuphumayo okungu-3 kwe-5V / 3A ye-Huawei Xiaomi Smartphone. (Mnyama)

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21,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-HP 255 G8 Ikhompyutha ephathekayo engu-39,6 cm (15.6 ") 1366 x 768 Pixel AMD 3000 8 GB DDR4-SDRAM 256 GB SSD Wi-Fi 6 (802.11ax) Windows 10 Ikhaya Elimnyama co 2W1D7EA

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I-Logitech M185 Wireless Mouse, 2,4 GHz ene-Mini USB Receiver, Izinyanga eziyi-12 Impilo Yebhethri, 1000 DPI Optical Tracking, Ambidextrous, Ihambisana ne-PC, Mac, Laptop - Gray

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13,55 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:09 GMT +00: 00 - )

I-HP 305Xl Emnyama, 3Ym62Ae, Amakhasi angu-240 Amandla aphezulu I-HP Original Cartridge, Enkulu Kakhudlwana

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I-Kindle Paperwhite (8GB) - Manje inesikrini esingu-6,8 '' kanye nethoni yokukhanya elungisekayo, ngaphandle kwezikhangiso

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Siyakwamukela esigabeni esithi "Ingadi Nengadi"! I-Cazoo, yeka umkhiqizo omuhle!

Zitholele ukukhetha kwethu izigaba ezingaphansi ezihlukahlukene ezifana nethi Amafulegi, Izifanekiso Nezithombe Eziqoshiwe, Amachibi Nezivande Zamanzi, Izimpawu Zengadi, Imithombo, Uthango Oluhlobisayo nokunye okuningi.

I-PIC Anti Food Moth Trap - Iphakethe lezikhwama ezi-3 ezinezicupho ezimbili = izingcezu eziyisi-6 - Isicupho seglue sezimvemvane zokudla, izicupho zama-pheromone, izinto ezibamba amabhu okudla

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Amafulegi e-aricona - ifulegi lase-Italy, ukumelana nesimo sezulu nama-grommets ensimbi angu-2 - ifulegi lesizwe lase-Italy 90 x 150 cm, tricolor

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I-WOLTU Eyelet Tarpaulin Engangeni Manzi, Imboza Iseyili Ngamehlo, I-Anti UV kanye Nokuvikelwa kwe-PE ye-Rainproof PE Yesikebhe, Imoto, Iphuli, Okumpunga, 280 g / m², 4x6m

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Ubuthi Be-CIFO Bamagundane Namagundane, I-Ratticide kanye Nokudla Kwegundane Ezikhwameni Ezinamandla Futhi Ezinambithekayo, Ushukela, Ubisi Nofulawa Iphunga Langaphakathi, Ngaphandle Nasekhaya, eline-Bitters Yezingane Nezilwane Ezifuywayo.

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I-Blumfeldt Arco Trino - I-Garden Fire Pit, I-Hanging Barbecue Grill ene-Tripod, Grill Ø 70 cm, I-Fire Pit Ø 96 cm, Insimbi Engagqwali, Intambo Emisiwe enamahhuku angu-5, Amalahle

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I-Autan Food Moths, Iphakethe Lamashidi angu-2, Ibamba Izinundu Zokudla Nezimvemvane Zokudla, Isebenza Kungafika Kumaviki Angu-8

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4,99 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:10 GMT +00: 00 - )

Ijeli ye-Raid Mothproof yamaKhabhinethi, Iphakethe Lezingcezu Eziyisi-6 Nephunga Lavender, Ivikela Isizini Yonke

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5,97 € (kusukela ngomhla ka-26/09/2022 16:10 GMT +00: 00 - )

Isibulala-zinambuzane se-Raid Bait Ants, Isilungele Ukusetshenziswa Ezikhaleni Zasendlini Nangaphandle, Iphakethe lesiqeshana esingu-1

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I-Tepro Toronto XXL 2019 Ikalishi Yezoso, Insimbi Engagqwali, Umbala: I-Anthracite & Weber 7416 Camino Starter

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Isiteshi sezulu se-BALDR Radio esinenzwa yangaphandle, i-thermometer yedijithali, i-hygrometer yangaphakathi nengaphandle, i-thermometer yegumbi, i-hydrometer enesimo sezulu, isibonisi sesikhathi

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I-ZIG ZAG, I-Spider Insecticide, i-Magnatela, Izicabucabu, Isibulala-zinambuzane Esiyinsalela Ephezulu Yezicabucabu kanye Newebhu, Ivimbela Ukwakheka Kwewebhu Yesicabu Kufika Ezinsukwini Ezingu-40, 500 ml

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Imbiza Kahovini Yase-Dutch EseCured Pre-Cured - Amapani Ensimbi Esansimbi Asebenzayo Okubili - I-Enamel Combo Cookware Cookware - 3L / 3,2 Isethi Yokupheka Yequart (2 ku-1)

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I-MATEIN Lunch Backpack, 15,6 Intshi ye-Laptop Backpack Abesilisa Abesifazane Abane-Insulated Lunch Compartment, I-Travel Backpack ene-USB Port, Isikhwama Sesidlo Sasemini Esingangeni Wamanzi Sepikiniki Yomsebenzi Wesikole, Mnyama

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I-Viedouce Mum Backpack Bag, Thermal Picnic Lunch Bag, Thermal Breast Pump Backpack, Changing Backpack, Thermal Lunch Bag, Multifunction Oxford Baby Changing Backpack, Gray

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I-ThermoPro TP50 Digital Room Hygrometer Thermometer Thermometer Indoor Humidity and Temperature Meter for Home Professional Thermohygrometer Yokulinganisa Igumbi

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I-COMPO Fazilo Isilungele Ukusebenzisa I-PFnPO, Isibulala-zinambuzane Esiyi-Polyvalent Acaricide, 750 ml, Enemibala Ehlukahlukene

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I-NOKLEAD Indoor Thermometer Hygrometer - Inkomba Yedijithali Enenzwa Yokugada Izinga lokushisa, Imitha Ephathekayo Enembile Yokuswakama Yokuqapha Igumbi Le-Ambient (Elimhlophe)

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I-Morole Barbecue Cutlery Set, Izingcezu Ezingu-45 Izesekeli Ze-Barbecue, Ikesi Lensimbi Engenasici Lekhwalithi Ephezulu ElinoMat, Lengadi Nekhempu, Nekesi, Isipho Sabesilisa Nabesifazane

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I-MEATER Plus | I-Thermometer ye-Bluetooth Ifika Kumamitha angu-50 ne-Wireless Probe Ye-Oven, Ugrilling, I-Barbecue. Uhlelo lokusebenza ngesi-Italian Luhambisana ne-iPhone, i-Android, i-iPad ne-Tablet

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I-Keter Garden Tool Rack, i-Beige Brown, 113,5 X 71,5 X 132 Cm

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blumfeldt Knight on Fire - Indawo Yomlilo Engadini, Ukushisisa Ithala, I-FireView, Insimbi Engagqwali, Ukubukeka Kwesimanjemanje, Okuzinzile, Okungashibiliki, Ne-Charcoal Grill kanye ne-Poker, Emnyama

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